Kansas Real-Time Water Quality

USGS station:	Go to NWISWeb
Constituent:
Time period:
Model Form:

Model Form #2

PMC =	e ^{- 0.19 - 1.868 sin(2π D / 365) - 1.109 cos(2π D / 365) + 0.091 TChl}
	1 + e^{- 0.19 - 1.868 sin(2π D / 365) - 1.109 cos(2π D / 365) + 0.091 TChl}

where:

PMC is computed probability of microcystin >= 0.1 ug/L
D is day of year, in the range of integers 1 through 365
TChl is total chlorophyll, in micrograms per liter

Model Archive Summary

The model archive summary for computed probability of microcystin can be viewed in pdf form here.

Model Calibration

Basic Data

Number of measurements:	45
Bias correction (smearing) factor:	1

Explanatory Variables

Variable	Value	Standard error
Intercept	-0.19	0.647
sin(2π D / 365)	-1.868	0.631
cos(2π D / 365)	-1.109	0.542
TChl	0.091	0.0525

Correlation Matrix

A correlation matrix is not available for this model. Therefore, the prediction interval was calculated by assuming that there is no correlation between the explanatory variables.

Reference

Graham, J.L., Foster, G.M., Williams, T.J., Kramer, A.R., 2017, Occurrence of cyanobacteria, microcystin, and taste-and-odor compounds in Cheney Reservoir, Kansas, 2001–16: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5016, 57 p.

Notes

Logistic Probability Microcystin